Mega Millions’s Summer Fade Out

We’ve now come to the last week of September and Mega Millions consistently chose pumpkin spice latte over sambas.

 

Alas, the {3-1-1-1} Pattern did not repeat, nor did we see any Three-Number Combos play for the second time. There were plays that reminded us, however brief, of more festive times. As we go through the September 27th drawing, one could say that we’re slowly going back in time.

Tuesday’s winning numbers were 14, 16, 26, 53, 72, and MB 04, marking the 122nd appearance of the {2-1-1-1-1} Pattern.

Winning Mega Millions numbers. From lotterytrend-megamillions.com.
Winning Mega Millions numbers. From lotterytrend-megamillions.com.

Out of the 307 Mega Millions drawings to date, the {2-1-1-1-1} Pattern has played 39.7% of the time. This Pattern played exactly one week prior in the September 20th drawing.

The [1-2-1-1-1] General Order made its 36th appearance, its first since the August 30th drawing. Of the 122 drawings where the {2-1-1-1-1} Pattern has played, the [1-2-1-1-1] General Order has played 29.5% of the time. This becomes 11.7% when we take all 307 drawings into account.

We now round up Tuesday night’s analysis with the 1 2 0 1 1 1 Specific Order making its 7th appearance. When we look at the 36 drawings where the [1-2-1-1-1] General Order has played, the 1 2 0 1 1 1 Specific Order has played 19.4% of the time. Looking at the 122 drawings where the {2-1-1-1-1} Pattern has played, this becomes 5.7% of the time, and 2.28% when we look at all 307 drawings. The last time we saw this Specific Order play was back on August 5th, the day of the Rio Olympics Opening Ceremony.

With the last Mega Millions drawing actually occurring on the last day of the month this year, will the month end with a bang, or chilling with a latte?

Mega Millions Autumn Spice

Mega Millions had it first autumn drawing Friday night, and things got kicked up a notch. Although there were no Pattern encores, or repeating Three-Number Combos, we got a treat with the Specific Order.

The winning numbers for September 23, 2016 were 1, 5, 8, 25, 62, and MB 14. The {3-1-1-1} Pattern played for the first time since the September 9th drawing two weeks ago.

Winning Mega Millions numbers from lotterytrend-megamillions.com.
Winning Mega Millions numbers from lotterytrend-megamillions.com.

With 49 appearances, and 306 Mega Millions drawings to date, the {3-1-1-1} Pattern has played 16.0% of the time.

The [3-1-1-1] General Order made its 16th appearance, its first since the June 17th drawing. Out of the 49 drawings that the {3-1-1-1} Pattern has played, the [3-1-1-1] General Order has played 32.7% of the time. This becomes 5.23% of the time when we look at all 306 drawings to date.

Last night saw the debut of the 3 1 0 0 1 1 Specific Order. Out of the 16 drawings where the [3-1-1-1] General Order played, this Specific Order has played 6.25% of the time. This becomes 2.04% when looking at the 49 drawings where the {3-1-1-1} Pattern played, and 0.33% when looking at all 306 drawings.

As the days grow shorter and autumn kicks in, will the {3-1-1-1} Pattern make an encore in Tuesday’s drawing? Will another Specific Order make its debut?

Coolin’ On Down

It’s official. The September 20th Mega Millions marked the official end of summer with little fanfare. Although the {2-2-1-1} Pattern didn’t make an encore, the Specific Order of the evening made its first appearance in over a year. As the daytime continues to grow shorter up here, gather ‘round the computer screen and follow along with the recap of Tuesday’s drawing.

The winning numbers for the 305th drawing were 2, 22, 34, 62, 72, and MB 2.

Winning Mega Millions numbers from lotterytrend-megamillions.com.
Winning Mega Millions numbers from lotterytrend-megamillions.com.

Now having appeared 121 times, the {2-1-1-1-1} Pattern has now played 39.7% of the time. Last we saw this Pattern was exactly one week prior on September 13th. In our Lotto Texas/Powerball post, we talked about how the {2-1-1-1-1} and {2-2-1-1} Patterns in Powerball seem to be locked into a neverending dance of alternating. Has Mega Millions caught this bug?

The [1-1-1-2-1] General Order played for the 28th time, and out of the 121 drawings where {2-1-1-1-1} was the winning Pattern, this General Order has played 23.1% of the time. When taking all 305 Mega Millions drawings into account, this becomes 9.18% of the time. The [1-1-1-2-1] General Order previously played on September 6th, exactly two weeks prior to Tuesday’s drawing.

We round up the night with the 1 1 1 0 2 1 Specific Order, which made its 5th appearance. With 28 drawings where the [1-1-1-2-1] General Order has appeared, the 1 1 1 0 2 1 Specific Order has played 17.9% of the time. This becomes 4.13% when looking at the 121 drawings where the {2-1-1-1-1} Pattern has played and 1.64% when looking at all 305 drawings. The last time the 1 1 1 0 2 1 Specific Order played was back on May 5th, 2015.

As we look ahead to fall, will Mega Millions continue to keep it cool, or will it get fired up?

Another Special Post: Lottery Strategy Edition

Over the weekend I had a question about Patterns for the architect of the very system this blog covers. I sent her an email, and she quickly provided feedback:

Dear Lottery Meister:

In answer to your question: The less a pattern plays – say like 20 percent
of the time – I would not look at the fact that it is not playing 80 percent
of the time, and therefore, not play that pattern. I have calculated and
verified the theoretical probabilities and actual probabilities on patterns,
general orders, and specific orders listed on our sites. What you are
reporting real time for www.lotterytrend.com, www.lotterytrend-megamillions.com, and www.lotterytrend-powerball.com, are actual probabilities. The actual pattern probabilities are not that far off
from the theoretical. In general, the less a pattern plays the greater your
odds of winning when it does play – providing you are playing the ” less
played” pattern. But since Lottery Trend breaks the patterns down into
general orders and specific orders, you have the choice of increasing your
odds of winning, i.e., if you pick a specific order and you stick with that
specific order, when that specific order does play, your odds of winning are increased, significantly.

For instance, if you are playing the {3-2-1} pattern in Texas Lotto (and you are only buying one ticket), your odds of winning when {3-2-1} does play is about 1 out of 13 million rather than 1 out of 26 million. If you are
playing the {5-1} pattern, your odds of winning are about 1 out of 900,000, rather than 1 out of 26 million. The strategy is to stay the course and keep playing that same pattern until it turns up. A {5-1} pattern plays on average between 3 and 4 times every 100 drawings. If I know nothing else I would play the {5-1} pattern, seeing that my chances are better when it does come around. I can spend that dollar every draw until {5-1} does play.

It’s like picking a spot to fish, knowing where and how the fish bites.

If you know about specific orders associated with each pattern, you can
increase your odds even more, providing you stick with that specific order.
But the rarity of play for specific order kicks in, and my chance of picking
the right specific order for {5-1} is about two out of three (when the {5-1}
pattern does play -there are six specific orders to choose from and if {5-1}
pops up 4 out of 100 draws, I have a 2 out of 3 chance that the specific
order I’ve chosen will play). If I am playing the right specific order when
{5-1} does play, the odds of winning, playing that one dollar, is 1 out of
154,000, rather than 1 out of 26 million.

The same goes for the {3-2-1} pattern. This pattern plays about 1 out of 2
drawings. Picking a specific order, and staying with that specific order
increases my chance of winning, when that specific order does play. The
{3-2-1} pattern consists of six specific orders. When the specific order
I’ve chosen does play my odds of winning are about 1 out of 2,250,000,
rather than 1 out of 26 million. Because of how often the {3-2-1} pattern
plays it is nearly a given that the specific order you choose will play
several times a year.

And consider this, if I choose to buy more than one ticket, but stay
consistent with the specific order, I improve my odds of winning even more.

The {5-1} pattern plays about 3 to 4 percent. So I calculate that it plays
about 3 to 4 times a year. I would not count it out due to the odds of
winning when it does play.

Whether you play a pattern or not depends on (1) how often that pattern is expected to play, (2) the odds of winning, when that pattern plays, (3) and your patience. When I co-authored Lottery Trend in 1993, I calculated that the {6} pattern (based on five groups and ten numbers in each group) would play once every 150 years. This was when the Texas Lottery was playing 1-50. Now, that’s a pattern that I would not have played. And when the Texas Lottery went from 1-50 (over 600 drawings) to 1-54, the {6} pattern still had not played.

The {6} pattern is different for the 1-54 system (based on three groups, 18
numbers, each). It has played five times in 1378 drawings. I calculated
that it should play 2 out of every 1000 drawings. As of this writing it
plays about 4 out of every 1000 drawings. Based on my calculations it
should trend about once every five years. Based on the way it is actually
playing, it is trending once every three and a half years. The {6) pattern
has three specific orders, and given the expectation of playing once every
three to five years, you could wait as long as fifteen years before the
specific order you choose plays. But it does play, and when a specific
order for this pattern plays and you are “patient” enough, your odds of
winning are 1 out of 19,000 (playing just one dollar). So that’s the
trade-off.

I created this system in 1992 during the advent of the Texas Lottery system, and I am proud to say I have expanded it to include Megamillions and Powerball.

Stay tuned.

Mary Semiene Harris

A Very Special Post

Lately, we here at Lottery Trend have come across websites that are using our information and the creators of said sites are not giving us credit. This is the first of a series of special posts created in order to set the record straight.

Our sites constantly show how often Combinations play. We do this in order for people to see the futility in playing repeating Combinations, particularly Three, Four, and Five-Number Combinations. We were unable to find documentation for Combination counts, particularly for Three, Four, and Five-Number Combinations. This led us to the design and creation of algorithms that allow for a rapid count for these Combos.

The Combination is just one concept. We created the concept of Patterns based on groups back in 1992. We were met with great skepticism, if not outright dismissal.

Now, we don’t mind if you would like to use the information on our sites for your own. However, you must cite your sources; otherwise it’s plagiarism.

Warmin’ On Up

Somebody won the jackpot!

First, we’d like to give a shout out to the winner of the September 16th, 2016 Mega Millions drawing. In addition to creating a winner, Friday’s drawing gave us a glimpse back to the earlier, warmer (and hotter) times of the year.

Friday’s drawing saw the 96th appearance of the {2-2-1-1} Pattern, provided by the winning numbers 13, 21, 28, 34, 40, and MB 15.

The numbers that made somebody $133 million richer. From lotterytrend-megamillions.com.
The numbers that made somebody $133 million richer. From lotterytrend-megamillions.com.

Now that there have been 304 drawings, the {2-2-1-1} Pattern has played 31.6% of the time. Last we saw this Pattern was at the beginning of Labor Day weekend (September 2nd). Unlike in Powerball, this {2-2-1-1} Pattern isn’t close to taking the title of Most Commonly Seen Pattern away from {2-1-1-1-1}.

The General Order of the evening was [1-2-2-1], which previously played on August 19th, 2016. Making its 25th appearance, it has appeared in 26.0% of the 96 drawings where the {2-2-1-1} Pattern played. When looking at all 304 drawings, the [1-2-2-1] General Order has played 8.22% of the time.

The 1 2 2 0 0 1 Specific Order made its fifth appearance, having previously played back on May 6th, 2016. Out of the 25 drawings where [1-2-2-1] was the General Order, the 1 2 2 0 0 1 Specific Order has played 20% of the time. When looking at the 96 drawings where {2-2-1-1} was the winning Pattern, this becomes 5.21%, and becomes 1.64% of the time when looking at all 304 Mega Millions drawings.

Last, but definitely not least, we come to the Three-Number Combination of 21, 40, and MB 15, which first played on December 22nd, 2015.

The repeating Three-Number Combination is highlighted in the red box. From lotterytrend-megamillions.com.
The repeating Three-Number Combination is highlighted in the red box. From lotterytrend-megamillions.com.

As we look to the final Mega Millions drawing of the summer, will Mega Millions keep it warm?

Lucky 13

Of course, Mega Millions decides to spice things up on the 13th! On the surface, Tuesday’s drawing pointed to yet another mellow evening. Sure, the most commonly played Pattern came back after a week of absence, but, things get more interesting when you look deeper. One point of interest is that the Specific Order of the evening hadn’t played in almost a year.

The {2-1-1-1-1} Pattern made its 120th appearance in the September 13, 2016 drawing thanks to 6, 15, 17, 39, 56, and MB 15.

Winning Mega Millions numbers from lotterytrend-megamillions.com
Winning Mega Millions numbers from lotterytrend-megamillions.com

Given that there have been 303 Mega Millions drawings to date, the {2-1-1-1-1} Pattern has played 39.6% of the time, and remains second-to-none.

The [2-1-1-1-1] General Order made its 31st appearance, its first since the August 2, 2016 drawing. Out of the 120 drawings where {2-1-1-1-1} was the winning Pattern, the [2-1-1-1-1] General Order has played 25.8% of the time. Taking all 303 drawings into account, this becomes 10.2%.

The 2 1 1 1 0 1 Specific Order made its fourth (ever) appearance, having last played in the October 13, 2015 drawing. With 31 drawings where [2-1-1-1-1] is the General Order, the 2 1 1 1 0 1 Specific Order has played 12.9% of the time. This shrinks to 3.33% when looking at the 120 drawings where {2-1-1-1-1} was the Pattern and 1.32% when looking at all 303 Mega Millions drawings.

The other spectacle of the evening was that not one, not two, but three Three-Number Combinations repeated! We had

  • 39, 56, MB 15, which first played August 19, 2014,
  • 17, 56, MB 15, which first played October 30, 2015, and
  • 6, 17, MB 15, which first played July 17, 2015.
The repeating Three-Number Combinations are highlighted in red boxes. From lotterytrend-megamillions.com
The repeating Three-Number Combinations are highlighted in red boxes. From lotterytrend-megamillions.com

As summer (or winter for you Southern Hemisphere readers out there) officially draws to a close, was Tuesday’s Mega Millions drawing a warm-up or will it settle back into a chilled approach?

Keep it Cool, Mega Millions

After a sizzling hot record-smashing August, Mega Millions continued its chill streak in Friday’s drawing. The {2-1-1-1-1} Pattern didn’t make an encore appearance, nor was there anything that screamed “Throwback!” There was one highlight of the evening, and that was the appearance of a Pattern that doesn’t get much play.

The winning numbers from the September 9th, 2016 drawings were 1, 34, 43, 44, 63, and MB 11.

Winning Mega Millions Numbers from lotterytrend-megamillions.com.
Winning Mega Millions Numbers from lotterytrend-megamillions.com.

With its 48th appearance, the {3-1-1-1} Pattern played for the first time since July 1st. Given that there have been 302 Mega Millions drawings to date, the {3-1-1-1} Pattern has now played 15.9% of the time.

The [1-3-1-1] General Order also made its first appearance since the July 1st drawing. Now having made 15 appearances, and given the 48 drawings in which {3-1-1-1} has played, the [1-3-1-1] General Order has played 31.3% of the time. This General Order has appeared in 4.97% of all Mega Millions drawings.

Unlike the Pattern and the General Order of the evening, the 1 0 3 0 1 1 Specific Order made its first appearance in nearly two years. The last time this Specific Order played was back on October 21st, 2014. With that said, given its third (ever) appearance and the 15 times the [1-3-1-1] General Order has played, the 1 0 3 0 1 1 Specific Order has played 20% of the time. This becomes 6.25% of the time when looking at the 48 drawings where {3-1-1-1} was the winning Pattern, and approximately 1% of all Mega Millions drawings.

For now, it looks like Mega Millions is surrendering the blow-outs and extravaganzas to its brethren Lotto Texas and Powerball, not to mention football. Will this continue, or will Mega Millions throw a surprise in the weeks ahead?

Summer Callbacks

Even after achieving a milestone in last Friday’s drawing, Mega Millions continued to keep its composure Tuesday night. Homework’s being assigned in droves and the football displays clash with the fall/Halloween décor. And yet, in spite of the inevitable change of seasons, Mega Millions asserts that summer isn’t over yet. The September 6th, 2016 drawing had not just a Pattern, but a General Order and a Specific Order that played some time during the summer.

The winning numbers from Tuesday’s drawing were 25, 37, 58, 69, 75, and MB 8.

Winning Mega Millions numbers from lotterytrend-megamillions.com.
Winning Mega Millions numbers from lotterytrend-megamillions.com.

Now having made its 119th appearance, the {2-1-1-1-1} Pattern holds onto its position as the most commonly seen Mega Millions Pattern, making its first appearance since August 30th.  With 301 drawings to date, the {2-1-1-1-1} Pattern has now played 39.5% of the time.

The [1-1-1-2-1] General Order played for the 27th time, making its first appearance since August 16th. Out of the 119 drawings where the {2-1-1-1-1} Pattern played, the [1-1-1-2-1] General Order has played 22.7% of the time. This becomes 8.97% of the time when we look at all 301 drawings to date.

The 0 1 1 1 2 1 Specific Order made its 7th appearance, and out of the 27 drawings where the [1-1-1-2-1] General Order played, this Specific Order has played 25.9% of the time. When looking at the 119 drawings in which the {2-1-1-1-1} Pattern has played, the 0 1 1 1 2 1 Specific Order has played 5.88% of the time. Finally, when looking at all 301 Mega Millions drawings to date, we get 2.33%. The 0 1 1 1 2 1 Specific Order actually played just a couple of days before our humble little lottery blog launched: May 27th, 2016. While not technically summer, it’s pretty darn close.

We now come to the Three-Number Combination of 25, 58, and 69, making its second appearance.

The repeating Three-Number Combination is in the red box at the bottom. From lotterytrend-megamillions.com.
The repeating Three-Number Combination is in the red box at the bottom. From lotterytrend-megamillions.com.

The first time this Combination played was back on February 3rd, 2015.

Will Mega Millions continue to keep a cool head as we head into Friday, or will it get its own frenzy going?

The September 300

September is upon us once again. The days are getting shorter, or longer for those of you reading in the Southern Hemisphere, football is starting back up, and the last group of kids are heading back to class. In Lottery World, September for Mega Millions began as calmly as August ended. There were no major upsets, repeats, or throwbacks to a time long gone on September 2nd. However, Mega Millions quietly reached a milestone: 300 drawings (and counting)! And by “300th”, we mean “The 300th drawing with number balls 1 through 75 and Mega Balls (MBs) 1 through 15.”

Friday’s 300th Drawing Spectacular ™ was thanks to 22, 28, 41, 46, 60, and MB 3.

Winning Mega Millions Numbers from lotterytrend-megamillions.com
Winning Mega Millions Numbers from lotterytrend-megamillions.com

This was the 95th appearance of the {2-2-1-1} Pattern, its first since August 23rd. Given the 300 drawings in Mega Millions, the {2-2-1-1} Pattern has now played 31.7% of the time.

The [2-1-2-1] General Order played for the 34th time, and, like the {2-2-1-1} Pattern, made its first appearance since August 23rd. Of the 95 drawings in which the {2-2-1-1} Pattern played, the [2-1-2-1] General Order has played 35.8% of the time. This becomes 11.3% when we take all 300 drawings into account.

This gave way to the 0 2 1 2 0 1 Specific Order making its fifth appearance. In contrast to the General Order and Pattern of the evening, the 0 2 1 2 0 1 Specific Order was last seen at the beginning of the year (January 22nd). Given the 34 drawings in which the [2-1-2-1] General Order appeared, the 0 2 1 2 0 1 Specific Order has now played 14.7% of the time. This becomes 5.26% of the time when looking at the 95 {2-2-1-1} drawings and 1.67% when looking at all 300.

Finally, we come to the second appearance of the Three-Number Combination 41, 60, and MB 3. The first time this Combination played was back on April 8th, 2014.

Snippet of Three-Number Combinations from lotterytrend-megamillions.com. The repeat Combo is highlighted in the red box.
Snippet of Three-Number Combinations from lotterytrend-megamillions.com. The repeat Combo is highlighted in the red box.

As we look ahead to next week, will things pick up for Mega Millions, or will the calmness continue?